The African Union and Regional Economic Communities
- The AU could play a greater role in defining what specific African solutions different African countries want from their partnerships with international actors.
- There could be more innovation in preventative diplomacy. It is important to think about who takes the message, who carries it and what needs to be delivered. Preventative diplomacy is an art. To address coups, we could think about which countries would get an orange risk light, and then consider which national figures are most credible and might be able to play a role. Thinking about military to military relations could also be useful.
- RECs and the international community could do more to connect to citizens on the ground and listen to what they are asking for. This is especially important during long term protests with consistent demands (such as were the cases in Sudan and in parts of the Sahel) and should feed into early warning.
- Regional organisations could do more to play a constructive role in negotiations and to monitor transitions after UCGs.
- There is more to be done to help citizens understand what RECs can do for them. We could consider strengthening RECs national chapters, or funding civil society keen on engaging with RECs.
International partners
- International responses and interventions should reflect different national contexts. Donors could prioritise assistance based on what African publics say they want most (as presented in Afrobarometer data, for example). In some countries this is health and education, but in Mali and Burkina Faso this changed to crime and security. Institutions and governance practices should not be separated from the culture and practices of everyday people.
- Structural issues cannot be ignored. Where democracy is reinstated after coups, there could be efforts to continue to address factors that led to destabilisation. International partners should avoid using template coup responses, though negotiations should always aim to be inclusive and involve civil society actors.
- International support for RECs makes a difference and should be enhanced. International partners could put more resources into RECs, investing in both institutions and personnel. It is no longer possible only to work through the UN or EU on peace and security. Actors in the region tend to have a better understanding of what is possible and are aware of their own limitations. Donor desires to lead their own programmes can be counterproductive. Political leaders will continue to be reluctant to criticise neighbours, but it is important that international actors continue to back up RECs’ normative frameworks (AU or REC mechanisms could be referenced more in key international documents) and efforts to monitor and uphold election results.
- Western support for African democracy needs to be embedded in long term strategies. Policies to discourage UCGs could include attention and investment over the long-term, responding to the needs of the people. Three-to-five-year strategies are not long enough to strengthen civic engagement and democracy. Assistance should continue to encourage more people-centred institutions, invest in civil society and those committed to positive change.
- Communication is key. International partners could think more about how they talk about governance in African countries that are not responsive to their publics. Furthermore, it is important to think more about ways to hold semi-authoritarian governments to account when things go wrong. Without this, space is created for Juntas to say that the West supports oppressive governments. International partners must strike a difficult balance between trying to respond to calls for their involvement, while also being aware of perceptions of interference.
Civil society
- Establishing clearer common goals and responsibilities. It is important that local partners and donors agree on a common goal and establish clear roles and responsibilities. A written framework for resolving conflicts helps to avoid miscommunication.
- Civil society can play a greater role in strengthening accountability and holding leaders to account. Communication must happen on the ground and with empathy helping make sure civil society concerns are also expressed. Civil society have had some impressive successes (ensuring the 2024 Senegal elections went ahead) when they hold leaders accountable to constitutions, but they often feel ignored. REC rules make it hard for them to see what is happening in RECs or the AU, but there is potential for closer engagement and support.